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The SCOfficial 2014-15 Winter Outlook

global patterns

Nov 17, 2015

Polar Patterns Could Open the Gates for Cold, Wintry Weather

As our Winter Outlook series continues, we turn our attention to the polar jet stream, which will largely determine how much of this winter’s precipitation will fall in a frozen form and how cold our temperatures might get. In many ways, the polar jet stream — controlled by the now-infamous polar vortex — can be…

Nov 12, 2015

Strong El Niño Drives Pacific Patterns, Jet Stream Impacts

The second post in our 2015-16 Winter Outlook series turns to the Pacific Ocean for an update on El Niño and its possible impacts to North Carolina this winter. Over the past nine months, the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean have been warming and one of the strongest El Niño events on record has…

Sep 1, 2015

A Dry August Concludes a Warm Summer

August continued a recent dry pattern that has seen drought conditions emerge across parts of North Carolina. After Early Warmth, Temperatures Finish Near Normal Warm periods in the first week of the month and the middle of the month balanced out with several cooler days to give near-normal temperatures, on average. The statewide average temperature…

Jun 25, 2015

Rapid Reaction: The Return of Drought

If you caught the news this morning, you may have heard about the appearance of drought in North Carolina for the first time in over two years! With other notable droughts also in the news — like the one that’s impacting California, Oregon, and Washington — you also might be concerned about whether NC is…

May 28, 2015

Summer and Tropical Outlook: What Effects Might El Niño Have?

This time of year, our thoughts often turn to the ocean. It’s a great place for a vacation, and often a welcome relief from stress and heat. As climatologists, we also think about the oceans — Atlantic and Pacific — because they can give us some clues about how our summer weather and hurricane season…

May 4, 2015

April Showers Alleviate Lingering Dryness

After several months of dry weather in western North Carolina, April saw plenty of precipitation across that region along with above-normal temperatures across the state. Temperatures Trend Above Normal Our warm finish to March carried over into April, as the statewide average temperature of 59.31°F ranked as the 34th-warmest April since 1895. However, our average…

Mar 24, 2015

Winter Recap 2014-15: A Warm Start with a Frigid, Frozen Finish

Today we revisit North Carolina’s winter, including a seasonal summary, a review of predictions from folklore and our own winter outlook, and an ENSO update and outlook. Winter Summary The meteorological winter — December through February — finished as the 40th-coolest and 33rd-driest winter statewide out of 120 years of record. But the whole winter…

Feb 2, 2015

January Brought Near-Normal Conditions to NC

We started 2015 with average temperatures and precipitation that ranked near their normal values across the state. Statewide Temps Typical for January Up-and-down temperatures throughout the month averaged out to near-normal values. The preliminary statewide average temperature of 40.35°F ranks as the 56th-coolest January in 121 years of record. Most sites across the state finished…

Nov 24, 2014

The SCOfficial 2014-15 Winter Outlook

This is the final part of our 2014-15 winter outlook series, featuring our office’s official forecast for the coming winter. Before we get to our outlook, let’s recap the current state of the atmosphere, specifically in the Pacific Ocean and factors that could shape the polar jet stream. We will also look some past years…