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Winter Outlook 2023-24: Awaiting Wetter Weather With El Niño’s Return

Seasonal Outlook

A map of sea surface temperature anomalies as of May 20, 2026

May 21, 2026

El Niño Looms Large Over This Hurricane Season

Big changes will be happening in the global atmosphere this summer, which could turn the tropical Atlantic from a hotbed into a ghost town, while also setting the stage for better rain chances locally by the end of the year. To break down what may happen during this hurricane season and beyond, we’re taking a…
A satellite image of snow on the ground across North Carolina on February 2, 2026

Mar 19, 2026

Winter Recap 2025-26: Cool and Dry, With a Snowy Centerpiece

It wouldn’t be a classic North Carolina winter without a bit of ice, a solid snow, and temperatures running the full range from frigid to spring-like – sometimes only days apart. We fit all of those and more into the 2025-26 winter. In this post, we’ll wrap up the season with a look at the…
A photo of snow on a road and sidewalk in Raleigh, NC, on January 10, 2025

Nov 19, 2025

Winter Outlook 2025-26: A Seasonal Repeat in Store?

It’s said that no two snowflakes are alike — and science backs that up — but could we see two winters following the same template in back-to-back years? Early signs among the ocean and atmosphere are showing similar setups to last winter, which was dry overall but with multiple wintry events affecting all parts of…
A photo of a scenic overlook under cloudy skies at Chimney Rock State Park earlier this month

Sep 4, 2025

A Fall-Like Feeling Arrived With Mixed Rainfall in August

Cooler weather made for an unseasonable August, while we started wet and finished the month on a dry note. In this post, we also wrap up the summer and look at the big weather stories awaiting this fall. An Early Chill Interrupts Summer In a sudden shift after a hot end to July, August brought…
A photo of the sunrise in Newport, NC, on May 18

Jun 3, 2025

Spring Showers in May End a Long-Running Dry Spell

May brought a wetter weather pattern and prevailing above-normal temperatures in North Carolina. With summer now upon us, we also look at outlooks for the Atlantic hurricane season. Rain Returns and Drought Dwindles With multiple rounds of significant rain across the state, May reversed our recent dry trend and brought drought relief in many areas.…
A photo of snow on Topsail Beach on January 22, 2025

Mar 13, 2025

Winter Recap 2024-25: Snow Returns, but Drought Deepens

Our weather this winter included evidence of the expected, including overall dry conditions, along with some surprises sprinkled in with the return of snow across the state for the first time in almost three years. As we review the past season, we’ll take a closer look at the winter by the numbers, how our snowfall…
A photo of smoke from the Linville Gorge wildfire in March 2017 over Burke County, NC

Nov 13, 2024

Winter Outlook 2024-25: A Decisive Season for Droughts

It’s setting up to be a consequential winter for North Carolina, with the fate of a newly emerging drought, along with a potentially record-breaking “snow drought,” hanging in the balance. In our 13th annual winter outlook, we look at the potential La Niña pattern that could be in place this winter, the climatology of similar…
A satellite image showing five tropical storms in the Atlantic at the same time in September 2020

May 24, 2024

Uncharted Waters: Previewing the 2024 Hurricane Season

Few hurricane seasons in recent memory have arrived with as much anticipation as this year’s, and for good reason: few seasons have ever been favored for the sort of ample activity that current outlooks call for over the next seven months. On a recent webinar together with the National Weather Service in Raleigh, we broke…
A map of global sea surface temperature anomalies in October 2023

Nov 15, 2023

Winter Outlook 2023-24: Awaiting Wetter Weather With El Niño’s Return

Following a snow-free year in many areas and with drought now gripping more than half of the state, a pattern change – both from what we’ve seen in recent winters and in recent weeks – would be welcome. So could the newly emerging El Niño be the answer? In our twelfth annual winter outlook, we’ll…