Our weather this winter included evidence of the expected, including overall dry conditions, along with some surprises sprinkled in with the return of snow across the state for the first time in almost three years.
As we review the past season, we’ll take a closer look at the winter by the numbers, how our snowfall shaped up, and how large-scale patterns and drought have developed in recent months, with a look ahead to the spring.
Seasonal Statistics
As temperatures go, this winter was a highly variable one, with near-normal conditions in December, an Arctic chill in January, and spring-like warmth in February.
Across those three months, the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reports a statewide average temperature of 41.6°F. That’s slightly above the 20th-century average of 41.2°F, ranking as our 63rd-warmest winter out of the 131 years with records available, and our coldest winter statewide since 2014-15.
Balancing the ups and downs during the season, most long-term weather stations also finished the winter with near-normal temperatures. Following its 10th-coldest January and 26th-warmest February, Fayetteville ended the season tied for its 55th-warmest winter – smack dab in the middle of its 110 years of record.
Piedmont sites in Charlotte (55th-warmest winter), Greensboro (57th-warmest winter), and Raleigh (tied for the 41st-warmest winter) all finished within a degree of their recent 30-year average winter temperatures. Some coastal sites were cooler, including Hatteras, which was 3 degrees below normal and tied for its 52nd-coolest winter in the past 122 years.
Our precipitation rankings were much more one-sided, with dry weather dominating throughout the season. Data from NCEI shows a statewide average precipitation of 8.52 inches, which was 2.69 inches below normal and our 21st-driest winter since 1895. The last winter this dry occurred in 2016-17.
Only a couple of weather stations finished the season with above-normal precipitation, and they were both Foothills sites in Marion and Mount Airy. Most of the Mountains were 1 to 2 inches below normal, including a seasonal deficit of 1.83 inches in Asheville.
Across the Piedmont, Greensboro was 0.53 inches below normal for its 47th-driest winter on record, Charlotte was 2.53 inches below normal in its 23rd-driest winter locally, and Raleigh was 3.02 inches below normal in its 16th-driest winter dating back to 1887.
The Coastal Plain was our driest region this season, with several sites recording one of their top ten driest winters. Those include the 10th-driest winter for Elizabeth City, the 9th-driest in Laurinburg, and the record driest winter for New Bern since 1948, with only 4.06 inches of total precipitation, or just 37% of normal.
Snow Across the State
Although precipitation was limited in most areas, we did manage several significant snow events this winter that collectively covered every corner of the state.
On January 10 and 11, we saw snow in the north and west with a mix of sleet and freezing rain across central North Carolina. On January 21 and 22, the coast had a solid all-snow event. And on February 19, areas north and east of Raleigh picked up several inches of snow.
Those were the first snow events outside of the Mountains since January 2022, so they ended snow droughts dating back almost three years. Record-long snow-free streaks ended after 1,084 days in Marion and Shelby; after 1,076 days in Charlotte; and after 996 days in Asheville.
Entering this winter, parts of the southern Coastal Plain hadn’t seen an inch or more of snow since January 2011. But the late January storm brought 3 to 6 inches to those areas in western Brunswick County and southeastern Columbus County, and the entire state has now had at least an inch on the ground at some point within the past four winters.
The central and northern coastline also saw at least six inches of snow at some point this winter, and according to reports from local emergency management during the February storm, parts of northern Currituck County had more than a foot of snow on the ground. That was their first snow of that magnitude since March 1980.
Thanks to the pair of sizable snow events just four weeks apart, most coastal areas finished well above their normal seasonal snowfall. With 9.0 inches, Edenton more than tripled its normal snowfall of 2.3 inches. Wilmington’s 2.6 inches also nearly tripled its normal of 0.9 inches. And Elizabeth City totaled 12.9 inches in its snowiest winter since 1979-80.
Despite multiple wintry events, generally lower accumulations farther west meant those areas finished below their normal snowfall. Raleigh came close with 4.8 inches compared to its normal of 5.2 inches. Greensboro’s 4.9 inches was a couple inches shy of its 7.1-inch average. And Charlotte finished with 1.2 inches compared to its normal of 3.5 inches.
In the Mountains, Boone’s 20.1 inches was also short of its normal annual snowfall of 25.6 inches, but it was still the snowiest winter there since 2020-21. Nearby Flat Springs had one of the highest seasonal totals in the state this year with 33.6 inches, although that was also below the normal of 48.2 inches.
And after only two days with measurable snow, Asheville tallied just 1.9 inches all winter – well below its 10.3-inch normal snowfall. This was the first time since 2001-02 that Wilmington received more snow than Asheville for a winter season.
La Niña Lingers, and Drought Does Too
Entering this winter, La Niña was developing with cooler water bubbling up across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Typically, that pattern leads to a northward shift in the jet stream for much of the winter, leaving North Carolina warmer and drier than normal – and that was the overall expectation from our winter outlook issued last November.
We also predicted that sea surface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific would not drop below -0.7°C for the season. Indeed, the three-month average Oceanic Niño Index for December, January, and February was -0.6°C, making this a weak La Niña winter.
Expecting as much, we didn’t think La Niña’s grip on the jet stream would hold for the entire season, and our outlook predicted some wetter periods mixed in, as much of the state saw in mid-February. However, we didn’t expect the big snow events during that time or in other parts of the winter, given our recent history of long snow droughts and La Niña’s typical impacts that feature fewer shots at wintry weather.
Our outlook showed a few different scenarios for how drought might evolve this winter, from total recovery to status quo to further degradation. With persistent dry weather particularly in eastern North Carolina, we took the undesirable path of degradation, with an expansion of drought and its impacts.
Those included wildfires burning out of season in January, then sparking again after several dry and windy days in late February. And recovery for groundwater stores was limited, as we’ve seen at the Grantham well in Wayne County that is now lagging behind its normal levels for this time of year.
On the US Drought Monitor, which factors in these impacts along with precipitation deficits and other drought indicators, we entered the winter with drought affecting about a third of North Carolina. By the first week of March, 43% of the state was in Moderate Drought (D1) with an additional 11% of the state – in the Sandhills and along the southern coastline – in Severe Drought (D2).
It’s rare to have degradation during the winter months thanks to the lower evaporation rates and reduced water demands. In fact, the last time we had a net increase in drought coverage from the end of November to the beginning of March was back in 2011-12, which was also a dry La Niña winter. In that case, the spring that followed was our state’s warmest on record, but also a wet one that brought widespread drought improvements.
The road to recovery may not be so quick or easy this spring. As NOAA’s ENSO Blog noted last month, this La Niña is showing remarkably strong atmospheric impacts, despite its weaker signal in sea surface temperatures.
That’s reflected in the Climate Prediction Center‘s spring outlook, which resembles the typical cool-season La Niña pattern with above-normal temperatures across the southern tier of the US and a northward-shifted storm track favoring above-normal precipitation across the Ohio Valley.
As with most entrenched droughts, we can’t expect a complete recovery from just one rain event. Rather, we’ll have to steadily chip away at the ongoing precipitation deficits, which have been between 5 and 8 inches since October across most of the state. This week was a solid start, as parts of the southern Coastal Plain picked up 2 to 5 inches of rain on Monday, improving those areas from Severe Drought to Moderate Drought.
La Niña and its impacts on us are expected to fade as ENSO conditions likely shift back to a neutral phase by the summer. While that could help us break out of the drier jet stream configuration, we also tend to rely more on pop-up, hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms for our rainfall at that time of year, so some areas could remain in drought if we don’t see multiple soaking rain events this spring to re-saturate deep soils and erase more of those precipitation deficits.
For now, long after the snow has melted, the lingering reminders of the winter are school make-up days over spring break, flowers blooming early after the warm weather in February, and fire-stricken forests thanks in part to our ongoing drought.