The start of summer brought several waves of hot weather, plus mostly dry weather with a few late-month rain showers. For more potential rain chances, we check in on the tropics and the emerging El Niño event.

Summer Sizzle Sets In

Multiple rounds of hot weather made this an overall warmer-than-normal June in North Carolina. Based on data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), the preliminary statewide average temperature of 75.1°F ranks as our 30th-warmest June in the past 132 years.

It was the 8th-warmest June on record in Raleigh, tied for the 13th-warmest in Wilmington, and tied for the 17th-warmest in Greensboro. Western areas were closer to normal, including a tie for the 31st-warmest June in Asheville and the 40th-warmest June out of the past 93 years in Jefferson.

After our spring-like May, June wasted little time hitting summer highs. By the first weekend of the month, high pressure overhead elevated temperatures into the mid to upper 90s across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain.

Late in the following week, the next high pressure system to our south brought a less humid, westerly circulation over North Carolina, which pushed temperatures past the 100-degree mark in parts of the state, including new daily record highs of 101°F in Fayetteville and 103°F in Raleigh.

The next two weeks featured more variable temperatures as a series of cold frontal passages brought some relief from the heat. But the mercury was climbing again by the end of the month, as a large-scale “heat dome”-type pattern set up over the eastern US.

With that high pressure system building in from the west, our mountain areas were the first to feel the extreme heat, including high temperatures in the mid-90s on June 30. That was the first 90-degree day of the year in Murphy, and only the 14th day at 95°F or greater in Marion over the past decade.

We accumulated lots of 90-degree days in June, especially along the coastline. Wilmington had 18 days that warm, which was tied for the fifth-most in any June there, and the most since 2011. New Bern had 16 days at or above 90°F, which was its 10th-most in the month of June, on par with recent years: June 2025 had 18 such days, and June 2024 had 15 days that hot.

Despite Showers, Drought Continues

Even after some late-month showers, our rainfall totals still fell short of the monthly average in most areas, resulting in a dry June overall. NCEI reports a preliminary statewide average precipitation of 3.05 inches and our 19th-driest June since 1895.

Following the multi-day soaking rain event over Memorial Day weekend, a dry pattern returned for the first half of June. Dating back to late May, Raleigh went 23 consecutive days without measurable rainfall, which was its longest dry streak since 2017.

That helped the northern Piedmont slip into Exceptional Drought (D4) – the most severe category on the US Drought Monitor – for the first time since March 2008. The lack of rain in the upper Neuse River basin had a big impact on reservoir levels, with Falls Lake falling more than five feet below its target and Durham implementing Stage 2 water restrictions with its own reservoirs declining.

The first significant rain of the month came on June 19, along a cold front fed by remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Arthur. Parts of the state picked up more than an inch, including 2.70 inches in Graham – its wettest day in almost a year, since July 7, 2025.

Scattered showers continued in the final two weeks of the month, with the highest totals along the northern and central coastline. With 7.41 inches all month at Ocracoke, this was the 8th-wettest June there since 1957, while Hatteras had 4.86 inches and its 48th-wettest June on record.

Those areas saw some drought recovery by the end of the month, improving from Severe (D2) to Moderate Drought (D1) as soil moisture levels improved thanks to multiple rounds of rainfall and even some deeper groundwater stores moved back into a normal range.

Despite the showers, it still finished as a drier-than-normal month elsewhere. Wilmington was among the coastal sites that missed out on the heavy rains, totaling only 1.24 inches in its 3rd-driest June on record. In the west, it was 6th-driest June for North Wilkesboro and the 14th-driest at Pisgah Forest.

Greensboro had less than half of its normal rainfall in a tie for its 19th-driest June on record, while Raleigh ended up in better shape than most thanks to the late-month showers, finishing just 0.33 inches shy of its average rainfall in its 69th driest June in the past 140 years.

Despite almost breaking even on rainfall, higher evaporation rates have continued to create stress for crops and reservoirs in the northern Piedmont. That’s why we haven’t yet seen any improvements in the Exceptional Drought affecting that region.

The Tropics, El Niño Come to Life

Our hurricane season outlook noted that warm water in the Atlantic would favor storms forming early in the season, while a developing El Niño should eventually reduce activity across the basin.

In June, we saw milestones from both patterns that may tell us more about what to expect this summer.

First, on June 11, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) confirmed that El Niño conditions are now present, as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Niño3.4 region exceeded the El Niño threshold of 0.5°C warmer than normal.

That region is now at record warm levels at this point in the year, and there’s more subsurface warmth available to provide reinforcements for the fast-emerging El Niño. Recall that we were in La Niña conditions only three months ago as we exited the winter.

Confidence is also increasing that this El Niño could reach near record strength. The latest outlook from CPC gives a 63% chance of a very strong event – on par with the strongest El Niños on record in 1997-98 and 2015-16 – by the end of the year.

Critically, CPC also noted that the first atmospheric impacts of this El Niño have now emerged, with the classic pattern of low-level westerly winds, upper-level easterlies, and increased thunderstorm activity across the central Pacific.

With that coupled oceanic and atmospheric pattern in place, we expect other global impacts to emerge over the next few months. That brings us to the tropical Atlantic, which could see an abrupt reduction in activity once El Niño’s impacts of stronger upper-level winds kick in.

While it’s too early to tell when that might happen, a revised outlook from the Colorado State forecast team is now predicting only 11 named storms – compared to their original April outlook of 13, and the 30-year average of 14 – due to the fast-emerging El Niño.

That could mean a limited window in which tropical storms could form this summer, but the first named storm has already developed – and had an impact on North Carolina – after an atmospheric domino effect last month.

Remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Cristina in the eastern Pacific Ocean crossed over Mexico and coalesced along a frontal boundary in the Gulf. That led to the brief formation of Tropical Storm Arthur near the Texas coastline on June 17.

Moisture from Arthur then met with another cold front as it crossed the Carolinas, giving us our first – albeit highly indirect – tropical rainfall of the year.

There was no additional tropical development in June, as the month ended with high levels of wind shear across the Caribbean Sea. We can’t trace that effect to El Niño, but it is the same sort of unfavorable environmental setup that we expect later in the year.

For now, the main takeaways are that El Niño is in place and still strengthening. While that could mean an earlier reduction in Atlantic tropical activity, it also gives us more confidence that the typical impacts of an enhanced jet stream to our south and wetter weather in North Carolina could begin as soon as this fall.